EU lockdowns saved more than 3m lives, research indicates

Millions of lives have been saved by non-pharmaceutical interventions to the coronavirus pandemic such as nationwide large-scale lockdowns, suggests a new analysis by researchers from Imperial College London.

The research team – from MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute (J-IDEA) and Imperial's Department of Mathematics – considered the impact of major interventions in 11 European countries including the UK, Germany, Spain, Italy and Belgium.

They estimated that by May 4, when lockdowns began to be lifted in Europe, between 12 and 15 million people across these countries had been infected with SARS-CoV-2, representing between 3.2% and 4.0% of the population.

Their model then looked at the actual death rate from the virus in the countries and then predicted what it would have been without interventions to stem its spread, and found that such measures probably averted around 3.1 million deaths.

They also concluded that current interventions have been sufficient to drive the reproduction number below one 'and achieve epidemic control'.

Lead study author Dr Samir Bhatt said the findings suggest that “without any interventions, such as lockdown and school closures, there could have been many more deaths from COVID-19. The rate of transmission has declined from high levels to ones under control in all European countries we study.”

He also noted that the analysis “suggests far more infections in these European countries than previously estimated,” and that “careful consideration should now be given to the continued measures that are needed to keep SARS-CoV-2 transmission under control.”

The study was published in the journal Nature.